Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 1.782216 1.880888 1.983962 2.099992 2.227374 2.363414 2.520288
2025-10-19 1.653779 1.793013 1.945052 2.124622 2.332528 2.567697 2.856779
2025-10-26 1.554430 1.715232 1.896061 2.116755 2.382049 2.695016 3.098941
2025-11-02 1.477357 1.652576 1.854206 2.106830 2.419999 2.802768 3.318208
2025-11-09 1.405453 1.589193 1.804545 2.080168 2.430661 2.872101 3.488952
2025-11-16 1.343357 1.532819 1.758356 2.052344 2.434601 2.929098 3.643853
2025-11-23 1.302494 1.499283 1.737109 2.052758 2.472423 3.030328 3.865756
2025-11-30 1.273181 1.477907 1.728959 2.068080 2.529024 3.158940 4.137418
2025-12-07 1.228422 1.434852 1.690755 2.041043 2.525259 3.201292 4.282431
2025-12-14 1.182903 1.388843 1.646461 2.003051 2.503095 3.214230 4.380980
2025-12-21 1.145120 1.351203 1.611268 1.975188 2.492772 3.242539 4.505079
2025-12-28 1.130076 1.342131 1.612815 1.997071 2.553973 3.381063 4.824802
2026-01-04 1.116176 1.334458 1.616396 2.022643 2.623223 3.539354 5.203086
2026-01-11 1.101757 1.325475 1.617669 2.044740 2.688350 3.696332 5.601744
2026-01-18 1.077833 1.302874 1.599310 2.037371 2.707516 3.779214 5.872185
2026-01-25 1.054751 1.280578 1.580404 2.028038 2.722567 3.855644 6.140030
2026-02-01 1.027699 1.252057 1.551792 2.002960 2.710949 3.884866 6.314848
2026-02-08 1.001752 1.224297 1.523310 1.976776 2.695879 3.906448 6.476028
2026-02-15 0.985817 1.209766 1.512903 1.977165 2.723667 4.006117 6.823189
2026-02-22 0.975159 1.202130 1.511906 1.991586 2.775082 4.152818 7.303905
2026-03-01 0.952703 1.177498 1.485760 1.966138 2.757967 4.169598 7.477659
2026-03-08 0.928084 1.149292 1.453708 1.930357 2.721466 4.146600 7.549509
2026-03-15 0.907348 1.126083 1.428306 1.904100 2.700045 4.151266 7.693389